Europe's large purchases of liquefied natural gas suggest it will likely have enough fuel to generate electricity this winter to offset supplies from Russia. The BloombergNEF service, which is engaged in strategic research of global commodity markets, made such a forecast.
Europe could import almost 40% more liquefied natural gas over the coming winter than last year, with purchases increasing by around 14% next summer to restore lost supplies, the BNEF report said.
"These supplies are enough to cover the complete stoppage of Russian pipeline flows from October 1," the message reads.
To get the extra fuel, European buyers will have to buy 90% more LNG on the spot market than they have secured under long-term contracts, increasing competition with Asia. That would support global gas prices, which have risen sharply since Europe tried to reduce its dependence on Russia after its biggest supplier invaded Ukraine in late February.
BNEF's baseline scenario assumes that weather conditions will match the 10-year average.