Today, April 11, the Russian State Duma approved bills that introduce new methods for mobilizing Russians. In particular, it is proposed to issue summonses online, and they will be put on military registration even without the presence of a citizen at the military office.
Why is the Russian Federation resorting to new methods of mobilization, Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military-political expert of the "Information Resistance" group, told in a commentary for RBC-Ukraine.
According to the expert, the Kremlin has a problem with the mobilization of Russians, as it does not completely cover the need in the combat zone. On average, the mobilization potential of Russians is approximately 20,000 per month, while approximately 50,000 or more are needed.
Currently, spring conscription is taking place in Russia, as part of which it is planned to attract almost 150 thousand conscripts to the army. However, as Kovalenko points out, they cannot be immediately sent to war, because such decisions will cause scandals, which were at the beginning of a full-scale Russian invasion. The only way is to force the conscript to switch to contract service.
"This is real and possible. Since the Russian Federation is a repressive country and moral and psychological pressure on conscripts to force them to sign a contract will be quite logical and expected there. So, today he is a conscript, tomorrow he is a contract worker, and in two weeks he is already under Bakhmut. But all the same, it will not allow the aggressor to reach the parameters to fully provide himself with the necessary resources every month," the expert notes.
In his opinion, the new methods approved by the State Duma are an experiment by the Kremlin to expand repressive methods of mobilizing the population.
"This is one of the elements that can increase mobilization. The Russian Federation needs more human resources, so it is now looking for options on how it can be guaranteed to provide itself," he explained.
According to Kovalenko, even if the Russians will be able to mobilize a sufficient number of fighters with the help of new methods, they will still have to solve the issue of providing them.
"That's the problem. And with provision, they have a deficit, and this was noticeable even during their so-called "partial mobilization" last fall. Will they solve this problem? No, they won't be able to solve it," the expert believes.
In addition, according to Kovalenko, the Russians have a problem with the quality of these mobilized people, as they need training and training, and the time allotted for this is insufficient.
"These trainings are limited, the mobilized receive some basic skills, and this is not enough to go to the combat zone. Therefore, they are guaranteed to increase the number of dead per week, per month. In general, anti-record after anti-record," he noted.
According to the expert, the ban on the departure of Russians abroad should help the Kremlin with the implementation of the mobilization plan. Such a restriction, according to him, will help to avoid the situation in the fall of 2022, when Russians rushed abroad en masse due to the announcement of "partial" mobilization.
"When they tried to mobilize 300,000 people, and almost 1 million or more fled the country, there are different numbers. But in general, more fled than mobilized. Therefore, now Russia must prepare so that during these processes it is not possible to flee the country at all. For this purpose, the constitution is currently being adjusted there. And it is also necessary for the government to have unlimited opportunities to use this resource," he summarized.
It will be recalled that spring conscription for military service began in Russia on April 1. As part of it, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin wants to call up 147,000 Russians.