Georgian diplomat: If ceasefire fails, Trump has grounds to step up military support for Ukraine

Georgian diplomat Aleksi Petriashvili stated that if Russia fails to uphold the proposed ceasefire starting May 12 and peace talks collapse, former US President Donald Trump will have sufficient justification to increase US military assistance to Ukraine significantly.

“Trump now has both the political space and strategic rationale to deepen US support for Ukraine,” Petriashvili said, emphasizing that the diplomatic momentum has shifted in Ukraine’s favor thanks to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s proactive stance.

Petriashvili noted that Zelenskyy’s proposal to hold peace talks in Istanbul on May 15 disrupted what he described as a Kremlin strategy to delay and manipulate the negotiation process. “Putin aimed to draw out the conflict and entangle other global actors, particularly Trump, in a superficial negotiation effort. But Zelenskyy’s Istanbul move exposed and derailed that approach,” he said.

The diplomat argued that the Ukrainian leader’s initiative has been strengthened by unwavering support from key European powers, including the UK, France, Germany, and notably Turkey. President Erdoğan has publicly affirmed his support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and refused to recognize Russian claims over Ukrainian territory.

“Putin is increasingly isolated. He is no longer able to force all the actors into his game,” Petriashvili said. “There’s even growing uncertainty inside the Kremlin over whether Putin will attend the Istanbul talks at all.”

Petriashvili described the Kremlin’s recent diplomatic messaging as an effort to project a false sense of engagement, particularly toward the US, while actually buying time for further aggression. He said Trump had once placed pressure on Zelenskyy to negotiate, but the former U.S. president’s stance has significantly changed. “Trump is no longer pushing Ukraine; instead, his rhetoric has grown noticeably sharper toward Russia.”

In addition to the political shift, Petriashvili cited a recent rare minerals agreement signed by Zelenskyy, which has already entered into force, as a sign that Ukraine is deepening its strategic alignment with the West. “Military support for Ukraine is not only going to continue—it’s likely to expand with the aim of ending the war decisively in Ukraine’s favor.”

Meanwhile, on May 11, President Putin declined to accept a joint initiative by Ukraine, the US, and European leaders for an unconditional ceasefire beginning May 12. Instead, he proposed restarting negotiations in Istanbul from where they were left off in 2022—an offer that Western officials widely criticized as a stalling tactic.

President Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine’s willingness to engage in talks but made it clear that any negotiation would depend on Russia adhering to the proposed ceasefire. Trump later commented that the meeting in Istanbul “has the potential for a good result” and suggested he may participate if meaningful progress seems possible.