Political analyst Jejelava: we must find ways to apply strong pressure through personal sanctions rather than punishing Georgian people

Despite the Georgian Government’s statements about wanting a reset in relations with the United States, the recent Helsinki Commission hearing delivered harsh and critical assessments of the ruling party. At the same time, it became known that the “Friends of Georgia Act” was blocked by one senator, which the Government framed as a step forward from Washington. How should these developments be understood, and what expectations should Georgia have from the US? Analyst and Tbilisi State University professor Lela Jejelava spoke to Front News about these issues.

Q. What expectations should Georgia’s Government now have from the US?

A. In the statement released before the Helsinki Commission hearing, it was clearly stated that the situation has shifted “from partnership to a problem.” As we can see, America views the Georgian Dream as a problem. The statement explicitly said that the ruling party is obstructing America’s strategic interests in the region. The natural question arises: what should the US do now? Should it abandon its strategic interests in Central Asia and the Caucasus, or resolve the problem embodied in the Georgian Dream? Naturally, it must resolve it.

The US Secretary of State very openly indicated to the Government how this problem could be solved and how US-Georgia strategic cooperation could return to the point from which Georgian Dream completely reversed it. For our Government, this was totally unacceptable. So now the United States must find another way - and believe me, the “Friends of Georgia Act” is not the only tool Washington can use as leverage against the Georgian Dream. This does not mean that the US has abandoned resolving the “Georgian Dream problem.”

Q. Then the logical question: if the Government already received messages from the US administration and knows what the Trump administration is asking, how do you explain the open letters to President Trump from Prime Minister Kobakhidze and President Kavelashvili? What was the purpose of that political move?

A. These letters are intended more for domestic consumption than to genuinely change anything in US-Georgian relations. To say that Georgian Dream has a particular interest in this, especially under the conditions the US offered, would not be true. But the Government needs to justify the deterioration of relations with the US. Through these letters and epistles, it creates the optics - through its narrow perspective - that it supposedly has serious goals to fix relations.

Philosopher [Zaza] Shatirishvili, in his recent work, did not go so far as to openly call Trump a representative of the “deep state.” So if there is talk of normalising relations, why does Shatirishvili write opposite letters, behind which we know very well [ruling party Founder] Bidzina Ivanishvili stands? On the one hand, they call for a reset “from a clean slate” without meeting the conditions Washington considers crucial. On the other, they brand Trump as part of the “deep state,” against which, they claim, Ivanishvili is fighting a life-and-death battle. In reality, that letter to Trump might as well have been drafted by Russia’s Federal Security Service.

Q. The Government argues that the US administration and President Trump personally are not shy about engaging with authoritarian states, such as Azerbaijan. Trump even signed an agreement with Baku on the Zangezur corridor. For the Georgian Government, this raises the question - why has the Trump administration still not taken a clear position toward Georgia?

A. Georgian Dream has no understanding of the principles of geopolitics or America’s geostrategic interests. Even if they did, who gives them the right to shape relations with a partner according to their own vision? They sulk: “Why Aliyev and not us?” The US does not view Azerbaijan as part of its geocivilisational orbit or as a partner. It intends to cooperate, but does not see Baku as a strategic partner. Georgia, however, holds a completely different value-based and strategic significance for the West. But the ruling party does not know this - and perhaps it is not even expected of them, given the role they have chosen. The US will never measure relations with Azerbaijan by the same standard it uses for Georgia.

Q. Recently, the risk of Georgia losing visa-free travel with the EU has increased. The Government says it does not expect this outcome and describes such a step as EU blackmail against the Georgian people. What is your assessment - by the end of the year, is there a real danger that visa liberalisation could be suspended?

A. For Georgia, suspension of visa liberalisation would be a very serious threat. Under a future Government change, it would take a lot of time to restore what was lost. It is always extremely difficult to regain something already achieved. Therefore, much work must be done with the EU to ensure that the verdict concerns the Government rather than suspending visa liberalisation.

I understand that, legally and procedurally, suspension is much easier for the EU to implement - it only requires a qualified majority. In contrast, personal sanctions require a consolidated decision. That is why I believe we must still find ways to bring serious pressure through personal sanctions, rather than punishing the Georgian people.

Q. The opposition has declared October 4 as an important and decisive date. The Government is warning that anyone calling for a “revolution” will face prosecution. We have already seen the arrests of UNM leader Levan Khabeishvili and Murtaz Zodelava. What do you expect on that day, and what changes should the public anticipate?

A. Despite the threats, there remains a critical portion of the population in Georgia that is sufficient to ensure protests are not silenced. As for the Georgian Dream, it is very short-sighted. They lack the ability to see the difference between Belarus and Georgia, where repression of this kind will not end the process.

As for October 4 - it is not an opposition date. It is a date for the Georgian people, set by Bidzina Ivanishvili himself. It is a duel between Ivanishvili and the Georgian people. Since he has set an election date that is illegitimate both domestically and internationally, the people must show through their sheer numbers that whatever is declared that evening has no legitimacy. They must say that an illegitimate Government has no right to stay in power by force. The people must demonstrate that they will not allow him to retain power.