Expert Dzabiradze: repressions will become harsher, more widespread, but opposition is lagging behind

In an interview with Front News, expert Vakhtang Dzabiradze assesses the recent high-profile arrests and ongoing political developments in Georgia. He says the arrests of former State Security Service head Grigol Liluashvili and former Defence Minister Bacho Akhalaia serve several purposes for the ruling Georgian Dream party simultaneously: preserving its ratings through an anti-corruption narrative, discrediting the opposition and neutralising internal political threats. The expert does not rule out an expansion of repression targeting the media and other high-ranking officials, noting that the Government’s future tactics will largely depend on the outcome of the Russia–Ukraine war and the emerging geopolitical landscape.

Q. In recent days the public has witnessed a series of high-profile and controversial arrests. Do you see this as internal clan infighting, a genuine fight against corruption, or an attempt to distract public attention from more serious problems?

A. The authorities are currently in a very difficult position and their ratings are clearly declining. Added to this is pressure coming from the West, so Georgian Dream is using every possible method to neutralise the situation. Regardless of whether the fight against corruption is delayed or wrapped in something else, a large part of society still reacts positively to it. Even if people have doubts today, tomorrow they may gradually begin to believe it. I have observed this my entire life, this is the reality. The corruption theme is extremely important for them.

On the other hand, they have failed to stop the protest that continues on Rustaveli Avenue. They used every tool, changed legislation, yet the protest persists. Numbers are not the key issue here; what matters is that the protest continues. These arrests are therefore also an attempt to cover up the situation and divert attention. At the same time, this is about strengthening certain clans and finally removing those forces that may still have ambitions to return to power.

Q. Do you see Liluashvili’s arrest and claims that he financed the opposition and opposition media through so-called “call centres” as an attempt by the authorities to kill two birds with one stone - damaging both the opposition and former allies perceived as potential threats?

A. Yes, Liluashvili’s arrest is linked to two key factors. First, he is associated with corruption, which the authorities use to boost their ratings, showing that even their own allies are not spared in the fight against corruption. Second, they are eliminating competitors in a way that makes their return virtually impossible.

The issue of “treason” was introduced into Liluashvili’s case to target the opposition as well. The goal is to show the public that he was not only corrupt but also allegedly betrayed the country and the ruling team by cooperating with the “enemy”, as the authorities label the opposition. This narrative has been developed for a long time. Now they are trying to reinforce it by claiming that money from call centres was used to finance opposition media. That is why the arrests of the former State Security Service chief and Akhalaia coincided.

This timing is deliberate, aimed at creating public suspicion of a connection between them. This is a calculated move that influences public opinion. The real issue is not Akhalaia - it is the opposition, which the authorities are trying to suffocate completely. Everything is being tied to October 4. I suspect that this “October 4” scenario was already being planned within the State Security Service and opposition leaders were drawn into a major trap. Despite warnings, they still fell into it.

Systemic corruption has one major flaw: once one issue begins to unravel, it spreads like a spider web across the entire system. If pursued to the end, it could even engulf the entire power vertical. Public “ideological preparation” against Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze has already begun - questions are being raised, arrows are being directed at him. He is now effectively in reserve and it will depend on the authorities whether and why they decide to sacrifice him. This is not about genuinely fighting corruption; it is a powerful political and legal lever that helps the authorities boost their authority and eliminate competitors.

Q. It appears that while the Government was previously mostly on the defensive, unable to take such radical steps, it has now shifted to an offensive approach. Do you expect more high-profile arrests and what might the authorities’ next steps be?

A. I believe we should expect a series of arrests. I am almost certain that TV Pirveli and Formula will face serious financial problems. I also would not rule out arrests of individuals from these media outlets or among propagandists. This does not depend solely on internal factors - it will also depend on how the Russia–Ukraine war ends, what leverage the authorities will have and how the new geopolitical order takes shape.

Q. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said recently that much for Georgia - both domestically and internationally - will depend on how the Russia–Ukraine war ends. What do you think he meant by this?

A. The Prime Minister is right. The outcome of the war will be decisive for Georgia as well. If Russia loses - which is less likely - and negotiations begin, Georgian Dream’s rule would come to an end. But if Russia manages to impose its terms on the United States, Ukraine and Europe, Georgian Dream will further consolidate its position. Western influence will be redistributed, internal confrontations will deepen and the authorities here will gain more freedom to strengthen their positions domestically. Much will also depend on how Georgian society responds. Repressions will become harsher and more widespread, but the opposition is once again late in reacting.

Q. You mentioned social issues. The Government has already taken steps here as well, including the Prime Minister’s statement on rising prices and naming specific business people who were allegedly privileged under the previous Government. Is the ruling party trying to politically corner the opposition on social issues?

A. Absolutely. Even if the Government’s statements on lowering prices produce no real results, they will still resonate strongly with the public. When businesses earn millions in profit in an impoverished country, people tend to side with the authorities. Society is more concerned about personal finances than visa liberalisation or EU membership. The opposition continues to make mistakes by focusing almost exclusively on relations with Russia, while social issues dominate public concerns.

Q. Finally, regarding the ruling party founder Bidzina Ivanishvili: after Liluashvili’s arrest, speculation has emerged that Kobakhidze may be moving to sideline Ivanishvili. Do you believe Ivanishvili is involved in these processes?

A. I think claims about blackmailing Ivanishvili are absurd - he does not have such a problem. However, it is possible that he is not a victim of blackmail but rather isolated by a specific circle. There is a possibility of his gradual removal from power, but at this stage, I still believe that Ivanishvili ultimately makes the key decisions.